Well it was another boring month from a market movement standpoint. Really most of the averages went nowhere to slightly down even though from a news standpoint there was a lot going on. China had 3 +/- 8-10% trading days (yeah that’s a sign of a healthy stable market) and Greece is about to default on its sovereign debt…another sign of a healthy worldwide economy. But not to worry, our Central Banks and Government leaders have it all figured and certainly 0% interest rates for 7 years and various other accommodative and supportive policies will surely get the economy back on track. Funny thing is, who is to say that the economy, the way it’s performing now isn’t “good.” I mean if next year we have 20% unemployment (like Greece and Spain), the economy today would look great! We always look at it from the past’s perspective, or our own perspective. I am sure if you asked someone how the economy was 6 months after they got laid off and haven’t found work they would say its awful…even if it was 2006.
Enough about that, let’s look at the portfolio for the month and the changes for July:
|Cash||29.61||Change Month||$ Change Month||All Time|
Everything was slightly down for the month and we are still negative since we started. If you look back at some of the earlier blogs you will see I was a little apprehensive to be starting a timing/momentum strategy at what I considered the end of the momentum, but at the same time, this is a long term strategy and what “I consider” should never be considered! LOL. The point is, don’t forget this method has specific rules and there really is no place in it for “feeling like” or predicting where things are going because no one knows, and anyone that tells you they do is lying. There is one change for July and we are selling VBR and buying VTV. One important thing I have noticed is that ALL of the asset classes are losing steam, only 5 of the 13 choices are above their 200 day moving averages, and even the “best” performing asset class, MTUM has a momentum score of 5.38%..pretty sad. For comparison sake, VGLT and VNQ had momentum scores of 17%+ back in February. Here is the new portfolio for July:
|Cash||78.98||Change Month||$ Change Month||All Time|
Enjoy your 4th of July!