August Portfolio Review and Update

Well, it was bound to happen eventually.  The market had its worst month in a very long time.  I have been thinking (admittedly for way too long) since 5/2014 that the market was over extended, but, in the spirit of sticking with the GTAA 3 method, we had to be invested for this past month.  The portfolio was down 6% for the month and is down 7.1% since we started.  Not very good, BUT the one thing this method ascribes to do is to keep us out of horrible markets and after this big down month, NONE of the 13 asset classes are above their 200 day moving averages.  Which, according to those simple rules means we are all in cash.  That’s where we will stay until something ends a month above that 200 day threshold.  So, what I am looking for now is a sustained gring lower, preferable 6-8 months.  That will give the averages time to top out, flatten, and turn lower.  One thing I can guarantee in September, we wont get hurt by any volatility or crashes!  Now its purely a waiting game.  Lets see when the method signals us to get back in.  Here are the results from August and the portfolio for September.

08/31/15 Shares
VTV 368 79.27 29171.36 -5.88%
MTUM 492 69.89 34385.88 -5.75%
VBK 232 125.52 29120.64 -6.95%
Cash 190.78 Change Month $ Change Month All Time
92868.66 -6.05% -5981.88 -7131.34

Here is how the portfolio looks for September:  All cash

09/30/15 Shares
VTV 79.27 0.00 0.00%
MTUM 69.89 0.00 0.00%
VBK 125.52 0.00 0.00%
Cash 92868.66 Change Month $ Change Month All Time
92868.66 0.00% 0.00 -7131.34

July Results and Portfolio Updates for August 2015

Another month come and gone and the sideways grind continues.  It’s in times like these when it’s tough to stick with a strategy, but unless you have a crystal ball and like to eat broken glass you have to make and stick to a plan…whatever it is

The portfolio gained 1.86% for the month but is still negative on the year.  Its sure does seem like the market is topping out as well as bonds so when this thing cracks it will be interesting where this method allocates funds.  Right now the commodity class is just awful!  Perhaps that will be the place to be when the market rolls over.  Here are July’s final numbers:

07/31/15 Shares
VTV 368 84.22 30992.96  1%
MTUM 492 74.15 36481.80 3.79%
VBK 232 134.9 31296.80  0.4%
Cash 78.98 Change Month $ Change Month All Time
98850.54 1.86% 1802.92 -1149.46

 

For August there are no changes to the portfolio, MTUM, VTV, and VBK are still the best three and above their 200 day averages, although VTV was right on it.  Things could get interesting in the fall.

 

See ya in 30 days!