Well, it was bound to happen eventually. The market had its worst month in a very long time. I have been thinking (admittedly for way too long) since 5/2014 that the market was over extended, but, in the spirit of sticking with the GTAA 3 method, we had to be invested for this past month. The portfolio was down 6% for the month and is down 7.1% since we started. Not very good, BUT the one thing this method ascribes to do is to keep us out of horrible markets and after this big down month, NONE of the 13 asset classes are above their 200 day moving averages. Which, according to those simple rules means we are all in cash. That’s where we will stay until something ends a month above that 200 day threshold. So, what I am looking for now is a sustained gring lower, preferable 6-8 months. That will give the averages time to top out, flatten, and turn lower. One thing I can guarantee in September, we wont get hurt by any volatility or crashes! Now its purely a waiting game. Lets see when the method signals us to get back in. Here are the results from August and the portfolio for September.
|Cash||190.78||Change Month||$ Change Month||All Time|
Here is how the portfolio looks for September: All cash
|Cash||92868.66||Change Month||$ Change Month||All Time|